July Domestic Paper Packaging Prices: SBS Finally Gets a Hike, All Other Boxboard + Linerboard Flat

Research evidence excerpt

July Domestic Paper Packaging Prices: SBS Finally Gets a Hike, All Other Boxboard + Linerboard Flat

d that the full $60/ton nomination was recognized. Regarding

the price movement, this is the first hike since reaching its all-time peak of $1,530/ton in Fall 2022

following a combined $50/ton rise in Sept/Oct that year. However, prices have moved lower several

times since, with new price midpoint of $1,330/ton 13% below peak (-$200/ton). RISI highlighted that

a key limitation with recognizing the full amount for folding applications is ongoing competition from

imports and alternative grades (with options much more limited in cup stock).

RISI noted in its mid-month report that there were a host of factors driving the July increase, including

improving demand, capacity reductions, mill disruption and some continued grade switching. In greater

detail, the closure of SW's La Tuque, Quebec mill (127K ton capacity) and Clearwater's temporary

decision to cut production at Cypress Bend, AR by ~half are now being felt in the market. Meanwhile,

the Nippon Dynawave explosion in Longview, WA greatly impacted poly-coated grades. Input costs

remain a key hurdle, particularly related to freight and energy. Also noted were increased demand

helped by the narrower gap between CRB and SBS in recent months, and some renewed interest in

trading cards (specifically noting baseball and Pokémon).

With SBS now getting a hike while CRB commentary reflects ongoing challenges, we believe worth

watching will be whether the switching between grades that has occurred in recent months would

continue. As we've previously noted, though we see the appeal for moving into the higher-quality

virgin grade (SBS) from CRB, it does carry costs and takes time to complete (i.e., qualification