Staples Retail: Food PPI Pause Interrupts Recent Acceleration

Research evidence excerpt

Staples Retail: Food PPI Pause Interrupts Recent Acceleration

Equity Research

Industry Update — July 15, 2026

Food & Staples Retail/Food Service

Staples Retail: Food PPI Pause Interrupts

Recent Acceleration

Our Call Edward Kelly, CFA

June Food PPI marked a pause in the recent acceleration trend, though volatile Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Edward.J.Kelly@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5304

commodity categories and geopol risks keep the outlook fluid. Inflation outlook stable;

John Parkemonitoring retail pricing; foodservice best leveraged to any strengthening.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

John.Parke@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-3327

Food PPI Decelerates After Four Straight Accelerations: Finished Consumer Food PPI Adam Gregorio

decelerated ~50bps seq to +1.7% y/y in June, ending a four-month acceleration streak. Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

The slowdown was driven by a 75bps decline in Processed Foods (notably Protein), while Adam.Gregorio@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8117

the volatile Crude category accelerated ~150bps but remained deflationary. The 2-year

stack decelerated ~100bps to +5.0%. On an m/m basis, Food PPI declined ~30bps, led by

a ~320bps drop in Crude, while Processed Foods fell modestly (4bps).

CPI–PPI Gap Inflects, but Price Investment Remains a Risk: The y/y FAH CPI–Processed

PPI spread inflected positively, while the 2y spread narrowed to -1ppt. While June marked

a pause in the recent PPI acceleration trend, PPI remains volatile and renewed Middle East

tensions add uncertainty. Growing price investment commentary across staples retail

keeps us cautious on the reinflation trade; prefer grocers with idiosyncratic drivers and

strong self-help levers and continue to favor food service.