Lundin Mining Corp: Q2’26 adjusting items boost our EPS, focus squarely on Vicuña phase 1 capex

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Lundin Mining Corp: Q2’26 adjusting items boost our EPS, focus squarely on Vicuña phase 1 capex

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Lundin Mining Corp

Q2’26 adjusting items boost our EPS, focus

squarely on Vicuña phase 1 capex

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 43.50 CAD | Price: 33.59 CAD

Provisional pricing, derivatives positively impact EPS 17 July 2026

Last night, Lundin Mining (LUN) released preliminary estimates of the (positive) impact Equity

of provisional pricing and derivates on its upcoming Q2’26 financial results. With market

focus increasingly on Vicuña phase 1 capex, we revisit the message from the recent

Key ChangesCapital Markets Day (CMD). LUN has impressive copper growth, relatively low unit costs,

solid balance sheet, and leading precious metal exposure. Reiterate Buy rating. (US$) Previous Current

2026E Rev (m) 4,548.1 4,582.1

2026E EPS 1.21 1.27Q2’26 pre-release points to provisional pricing boost

Lundin announced that Q2’26 revenue is expected to be positively impacted by

provisional pricing adjustments of $79 million (m), higher than BofAe of $45m. We Lawson Winder, CFA >>

Research Analyst

update our model and boost Q2’26E revenue by 7% to $1,161m. LUN also noted realized Merrill Lynch (Canada)

gold collar contract losses of $12mn and unrealized collar gains of $31mn which do not +1 416 369 7592 lawson.winder@bofa.com

impact adjusted EBITDA. We model Q2’26E Adjusted EBITDA of $654mn ($632m prior), Adam Smiarowski, CFA >>

Q2’26E EPS at $0.37 ($0.32 prior). Our 2026E EPS increases to $1.27 from $1.21. Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Canada)

CMD key message: Vicuña Phase 1 capex well in-hand +1adam.smiarowski@bofa.com416 369 7780

The message at the June CMD on the Vicuña copper-gold-silver project, a 50-50 JV Sathish Kasinathan