Metals & Mining: Copper tariffs. BHP Jansen capex. LUN CMD takeaways. Valuations

Research evidence excerpt

Metals & Mining: Copper tariffs. BHP Jansen capex. LUN CMD takeaways. Valuations

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Industry Date

22 June 2026

Metals & Mining Metals & Mining

Metals & Mining Periodical

Copper tariffs. BHP Jansen capex. LUN

CMD takeaways. Valuations

Liam Fitzpatrick

US copper tariffs: policy paths and FCX exposure Research Analyst

A decision on US copper tariffs is expected shortly and will be a key near-term event +44-20-754-13233

for the copper market. The President's Proclamation stated that by 30 June 2026,

Bastian Synagowitz

the Commerce Secretary shall provide an update on domestic copper markets, Research Analyst

after which a tariff decision will be made on refined copper. We recently published +41-44-227-3377

a report outlining three possible policy paths: (1) a phased introduction of tariffs

Cody Hayden

(15% in 2027 rising to 30% in 2028); this is the market's base case and would be

Research Analyst

positive for copper near-term. (2) Immediate tariffs; this would effectively shut

+44-20-754-13230

down US import flows and could put downward pressure on LME prices. (3) No

tariffs; this could trigger a sharp sell-off given elevated US inventories. FCX would

be the clear beneficiary in our coverage from the introduction of tariffs; US

production accounts for ~39% of our 2027 consolidated production forecast and a

15-25-50% tariff would increase 2027 group EBITDA by 8-13-26%, respectively.

BHP: Jansen Stage 2 capex increases

BHP announced the capex budget for the Jansen Stage 2 potash project in Canada

has increased to $6.9bn from $4.9bn. This follows a detailed review of cost and

schedule estimates. A sizeable increase for Stage 2 had been expected, although

the ~40% increase is at the upper end of market expectations. Stage 2 is ~16%