Metals & Mining: Sector Update: Macro headwinds, structural story intact

Research evidence excerpt

Metals & Mining: Sector Update: Macro headwinds, structural story intact

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

North America 1 July 2026

Global Metals & Mining

Latin America Forecast Change

Metals & Mining

Sector Update: Macro headwinds,

structural story intact

Liam Fitzpatrick

Refreshed commodity prices and earnings estimates Research Analyst

The sector has lost momentum in recent weeks after a strong run year to date, as +44-20-754-13233

macro headwinds have weighed on performance. The US dollar has strengthened,

Bastian Synagowitz

China macro data has softened and AI data centre-linked equities have been Research Analyst

volatile. We believe fundamentals remain solid, but performance may be choppy in +41-44-227-3377

the near term until the Fed signals a less hawkish tilt. Valuations in early June

Cody Hayden

appeared full, but the recent ~15% correction has opened up some pockets of

Research Analyst

value, in our view. Our top picks are Anglo, GLEN, FM and FCX.

+44-20-754-13230

We make modest price adjustments, with key 2026 changes including copper to

Key Changes

~$13,200/t (from $12,800/t), aluminium to ~$3,300/t ($3,675/t) and iron ore

Company Target Price Rating

unchanged at $103/t. Earnings upgrade risk has moderated and is now close to

3,100.00 to

neutral for the majors, with ~5-10% upgrade risk for the copper names. Cost ANTO.L -

3,400.00

inflation will be in focus during the upcoming reporting season, however, the

2,600.00 to

market should look through temporary increases in unit costs following the rapid BHPB.L 2,700.00 -

normalisation in energy prices.

620.00 to

BOL.ST -

640.00

We provide a detailed summary of our estimates, valuations and recommendations FCX.N 68.00 to 70.00 -

for our European and North American coverage within.

610.00 to

GLEN.L -