Lottomatica (AO) | Buy | Q2 2026 preview: strong momentum continues, guidance de-risked

Research evidence excerpt

Lottomatica (AO) | Buy | Q2 2026 preview: strong momentum continues, guidance de-risked

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 16 July 2026

Hugo Paternoster, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 53 65 35 34

hpaternoster@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyLottomatica

Italy | Travel & leisure Beta Profile: MCap: EUR5.7bn

Target Price: EUR30.00 Bloomberg: LTMC IM Reuters: LTMC.MI

Current Price: EUR25.62 Free float 75%

Up/downside: 17.1% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 36.6

YTD abs performance 14.4% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 27.77/19.20

Q2 2026 preview: strong momentum continues, guidance de-risked

Key points:

Solid Q2 in line with expectations on top line, with sales growth of +6% YoY (EUR574m) and adj. EBITDA of EUR225m (+11% YoY,

39.2% margin), driven by underlying market growth.

Online continued to outperform, supported by ongoing market share gains, while Sport Retail remained solid and kept growing

share; profitability should stay strong with Q2 margin broadly in line with Q1.

We see no risk on FY26 guidance, with management expecting adj. EBITDA at the top end of the EUR940m–980m range; H2 comps

get easier YoY, removing any risk to the guidance.

Reporting date 28 July

Conference call 28 July

Dial in number TBA

Table 1:Q2/H1 preview vs VisibleAlpha consensus

(EURm) Q2 2026 Q2 2025 ∆% YOY Cons. H1 2026 H1 2025 ∆/ Cons. Cons.

Sales 574 543 6% 583 1176 1129 4% 1185

… o/w Online 254 223 14% 262 518 463 12% 526

… o/w Sport Franchise 135 129 5% 138 278 279 -1% 280

… o/w Gaming Franchise 185 191 -3% 183 380 386 -2% 379

0 0 0 0

EBITDA (adj) 225 202 11% 226 460 422 9% 462

Margin 39.2% 37.2% 199bps 38.8% 39.1% 37.4% 172bps 39.0%

… o/w Online 147 122 20% 147 299 251 19% 299

… o/w Sport Franchise 35 36 -1% 37 70 81 -14% 74

… o/w Gaming Franchise 43 44 -2% 44 91 90 1% 90