Lottomatica Group SpA "Feedback from post Q1 CFO roadshow" (Buy) Shelley

Research evidence excerpt

Lottomatica Group SpA "Feedback from post Q1 CFO roadshow" (Buy) Shelley

Cons.

current profitability levels are structural. Finally, investors probed the impact of macro on

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demand, the underlying health and growth trajectory of the Italian market, and the

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regulatory stance of the Italian government and regulator, including potential risks from

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taxation or policy changes.

Ben Shelley, ACA

What were management's key messages? Analyst

ben.shelley@ubs.com

On retail concessions, they outlined the protracted nature of the ongoing process, with

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any potential cash outflows pushed to ~2028 at the earliest, and structured in a way

that keeps the leverage impact limited. On prediction markets, the message was that Jarrod Castle, CFA

these are not a material competitive threat in Italy given regulatory constraints and Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

product drawbacks vs fixed odds sports betting. In terms of growth and outlook,

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management highlighted strong volume trends, particularly in online. On EBITDA

margins, they stressed that current performance is driven by both cost efficiencies and Artem Prokopets

strong volumes (particularly in online which drives a positive mix effect). Regarding Analyst

artem.prokopets@ubs.com

competition and market share, management acknowledged gains naturally become

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harder as LTMC market share progresses but still sees further incremental upside. They

reiterated that competitive advantage is rooted in product quality, pricing, risk

management, and customer data. On AI, no immediate impact was highlighted;

however, management emphasised its potential to support longer-term scalability and

revenue growth.