When in Rome: Prediction, AI, and Concessions Capture Focus During HQ Visit

Research evidence excerpt

When in Rome: Prediction, AI, and Concessions Capture Focus During HQ Visit

Prediction Markets. Lottomatica has previously highlighted numerous regulatory FY26E EBITDA 970.17 970.17

encumbrances to Prediction operators scaling within the country, though a recent FY27E EBITDA 1,060.91 1,060.91

sponsorship arrangement between Polymarket (Private) and Serie A club Lazio

has nonetheless sparked some concerns that PM operators still harbor interest Revenue (M)

in the market, and could accept bets via VPN as a result. While Lottomatica FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

management reiterated many of the same regulatory barriers to market access, Q1 585.74 602.26A -

additional color was added around bettor appetite for exchange betting, tax deltas, Q2 543.13 583.23 -

and the potential consequences from Polymarket or others accepting bets via VPN. Q3 511.27 562.54 -

Regarding bettor appetite for Prediction offerings, Lottomatica noted that a variant

Q4 615.00 676.62 - of the same product has been present in Italy for years already and represents just a

low single digit percent of overall wagering volume. Expansion of the sports offering FY REV 2,255.14 2,424.66 2,550.34

also requires approval via a central regulatory system prior to offering, and as a FY EV/S 3.6x 3.3x 3.2x

result the ability to quickly expand the breadth and depth of offerings in response to FY P/S 2.6x 2.4x 2.3x

match action would be limited. Regarding taxes, market access via classification as EBITDA (Adjusted)

a financial rather than betting product wouldn't provide cost structure advantages

FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E (there isn't a meaningful delta from being regulated as a fins product rather than

betting), plus the same regulatory arb dynamics aren’t present in Italy. Consumer Q1 220.47 235.49A -