Melia Hotels (AO) | Hold | Q226 preview: good top line, weak margins. 2026 guidance at risk?

Research evidence excerpt

Melia Hotels (AO) | Hold | Q226 preview: good top line, weak margins. 2026 guidance at risk?

#EarningsPreview #Negative

Release date: 16 July 2026

Inigo Egusquiza

Head of Iberian Equity Research

+34 914 36 5112

iegusquiza@keplercheuvreux.com

HoldMelia Hotels

Spain | Travel & leisure Beta Profile: MCap: EUR2.4bn

Target Price: EUR10.00 Bloomberg: MEL SM Reuters: MEL.MC

Current Price: EUR10.74 Free float 46%

Up/downside: -6.9% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 7.9

YTD abs performance 35.6% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 12.44/6.84

Q226 preview: good top line, weak margins. 2026 guidance at risk?

Key points:

Q226 numbers: we see a decent top line, though decelerating versus Q126, with weaker margins. By business units (RevPAR): 1)

Spain performing strongly (accelerating the Q126 trend which was +1.8% YOY), 2) EMEA slightly positive but decelerating versus

the growth seen in Q126 (+16.5% driven by the Milano winter Olympic games) and 3) America still suffering, Dominican Republic

performing nicely but with Mexico (security and sargasso issues) and Cuba (MHI ended management & brand licensing for 15

hotels in Cuba beginning of June and more to come) suffering. The USD continues to depreciate by c. -2.5% YOY but much less

than in Q126 (c. -11% YOY).

Poor FCF in H126 driven by weaker EBITDA, higher working capital outflows and higher capex (remodelling & small acquisitions)

Summer season looking strong (on the books +7% YOY) though official guidance (EBITDA ex cap gains of no less than EUR565m in

2026) appears optimistic as it implies a much stronger EBITDA (+8% YOY) in H226 (flattish expected in H126).

Stoneshield appointed as board member after acquiring a 9.5% stake. What is next? Showing the real estate value in