Melia Hotels "Valuation reset, focus now on execution" (Neutral) Prokopets

Research evidence excerpt

Melia Hotels "Valuation reset, focus now on execution" (Neutral) Prokopets

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

Melia Hotels Equities

SpainValuation reset, focus now on execution

Lodging

12-month rating Neutral

Re-rating on sentiment, not yet on fundamentals

Melia's share price has risen over 40% YTD in 2026, materially outperforming most 12m price target €11.80

other European hotel operators, whose shares are down over the same period. While we Prior : €8.60

do not yet see evidence of structural margin expansion, we believe recent developments

Price (12 May 2026) €11.40

warrant a reassessment of the valuation risk premium applied to Melia. In our view, the

stock has benefited from being perceived as the least geopolitically exposed European RIC: MEL.MC BBG: MEL SM

hotel name, alongside external validation from the entry of long-term investor,

Trading data and key metrics

Stoneshield Capital. We believe these factors have supported sentiment and reduced

52-wk range €11.51-6.56

left-tail risk, justifying a higher valuation multiple. This, however, does not alter our

fundamentally cautious view on medium-term upside absent evidence of operational Market cap. €2.51b/US$2.94b

progress. We reiterate our Neutral rating and increase our price target to €11.80/share Shares o/s 220m (ORD)

from €8.60/share. Free float 31%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 572

Modest upward revisions to revenue and EBITDA, downward to EBIT and EPS Avg. daily value (m) €5.5

We modestly raise our revenue forecasts, increasing estimates by c2% in both 2026E Common s/h equity (12/26E) €0.97b

and 2027E, primarily to reflect the consolidation of Paradisus Salinas, which should P/BV (12/26E) 2.6x

support year-on-year growth in 1H26E, as well as the slightly earlier-than-expected Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.5x