Hotels: ADR tracker - Strong Summer ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Hotels: ADR tracker - Strong Summer ahead

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Spain 2 July 2026

United Kingdom Hotels

Periodical

Leisure & Hotels

Hotels

ADR tracker - Strong Summer ahead

Tim Barrett

Monitoring advertised room rates Research Analyst

Our July tracker provides further evidence of an encouraging Summer for pan- +44-20-7541-1559

European hotel operators. Spain remains the strongest market showing close to

Richard Stuber

20% ADR growth for the fifth successive month. France and Germany look set for Research Analyst

a small pick-up from June with the latter seeing a more supportive trade-fair +44-20-754-54617

calendar.

Andre Juillard

Research Analyst

n On a 4wk lead-time the UK is more mixed: we still measure rate growth in

+33-1-4495-6585

July (0.5%), albeit slower than June (3.7%).

Sonu Churiwal

n Regional UK (7.6%) is stronger than London (-0.9%), again helped by events

Research Associate

and possibly reflecting domestic tourism.

n On a 13wk view, all geographies remain in growth. There is evidence of Punyadip Cheema, CFA

staycations boosting the UK in August (ADR +4.9%) while Germany should Research Analyst

benefit from a strong trade-fair programme in September (+8.4%). +44-20-754-16107

n At the end of Q3, there is evidence of a material boost from concerts, this

time in France: Celine Dion attracting >0.5m concert-goers to Paris is

moving the market (ADR +8.2%) in September...

Recommendations: Our Hold rating on Whitbread (WTB.L, GBp2,298) reflects the

balance between cost inflation (business rates +£110m over 3y), modest RevPAR

growth (1.8% 1Q) and self-help potential. The consensus UK RevPAR assumption

of 1.1% now implies a modest deceleration in the remainder of the year. In our view