Erste Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: Strong loan growth and opex under control QOQ

Research evidence excerpt

Erste Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: Strong loan growth and opex under control QOQ

Erste Group Buy | Target Price: EUR128.00

Company description Management

Erste is a leading financial institution in Austria and CEE. After various Peter Bosek, CEO

acquisitions and organic growth, it has one of the largest branch networks and Stefan Dörfler, CFO

customer bases in the region. Although Erste operates as a universal bank, the Alexandra Habeler-Drabek, CRO

strategic focus lies on retail banking. It is a top-three bank in its core markets in Key shareholders

Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Croatia. Free float 70.60%

Erste Foundation direct 5.76%

Sparkassen Beteiligungs Gmbh & KG 12.23%

Foundations 3.40%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Erste has leading franchises in Central and Eastern Europe We value the stock based on an SOP model (14.25% CET1 ratio

(CEE). With the region's continued strong macro prospects, we and c. 11.3% COE).

believe Erste is set to continue to benefit from a convergence in Risks to our rating

retail demand towards western European standards. Severe recession.

Given the combination of leading market shares, a de-risked Negative regulatory and tax changes.

loan book, and a solid capital position, we expect the bank to be Negative government intervention.

well positioned for sustainable growth.

High interest rates and loan growth will continue to drive NII and

ROTE.

Catalysts

Results releases.

Execution of the Santander Bank Polska acquisition and

enhancing the CET1 ratio.

M&A (increase stake in Santander Bank Polska from 49% to

75%), mainly bolt-on acquisitions in CEE.

Key data charts

Price performance Segment revenue CET1 ratio

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses