Erste Group Bank AG: Exploring Options for Erste Bank Polska

Research evidence excerpt

Erste Group Bank AG: Exploring Options for Erste Bank Polska

Idea

June 10, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MErste Group Bank AG | Europe Gulnara Saitkulova

Equity Analyst

Exploring Options for Erste Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7677-0313

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

Bank Polska

Erste Group Bank AG (ERST.VI, EBS AV)

We would see a larger stake in Erste Polska as a value-creation Banks | Austria

Stock Rating Overweight

lever. In our illustrative analysis, reaching up to ~75% ownership Industry View Attractive

offers the highest accretion potential while likely avoiding the PriceShr price,targetclose (Jun 9, 2026) €112.00€102.90

need for a significant premium. We remain Overweight. 52-Week Range €112.00-69.40

Mkt cap, curr (mn) €42,101

Erste completed the acquisition of a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska, now Erste Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Bank Polska, in January 2026. On the February earnings call and at our European EPS (€)** 8.24 9.52 11.01 11.84

P/E** 12.5 10.8 9.3 8.7

Financials Conference in March, Erste Bank's CEO talked about the potential for P/tang BV 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6

increasing its stake. As Erste expects greater visibility on the Polish business to Return on avg tang eqty 16.7 19.1 21.1 19.2

(%)

emerge in 2Q/3Q, which could shape its future strategic decisions, we explore DPS (€) 0.75 4.29 4.95 5.33

scenarios in which the bank increases its stake from the current 49%. Div yld (%) 0.7 4.2 4.8 5.2

Core tier 1 capital ratio, 19.3 14.8 14.8 15.0

Basel 3 (%)

PLN 604/share is the implied minimum tender price under Polish regulations,

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare