Erste Group Bank AG: Path to c.75% stake in Poland looks feasible via a voluntary offer

Research evidence excerpt

Erste Group Bank AG: Path to c.75% stake in Poland looks feasible via a voluntary offer

Equity Research

European Banks

18 June 2026

Erste Group Bank AG

Path to c.75% stake in Poland

looks feasible via a voluntary offer

With 2Q26 results (30 July) representing the next opportunity ERST.VI/EBS AV OVERWEIGHT

to address the capital allocation debate, we would like Erste European Banks POSITIVE

to outline a framework for a potential increase in its Polish Price Target EUR 123.00

Price (16-Jun-26) EUR 113.50

stake from 49% while maintaining capital discipline. We Potential Upside/Downside +8.4%

highlight a c.€4bn (134bps CET1) cost as manageable. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

European BanksThe path Erste could take to potentially increase its stake in its Polish business: With

Krishnendra Dubey

management having flagged scope to increase its 49% holding in Erste Bank Polska (not

+91 (0)22 6175 1719

covered), the key debate is whether Erste is able to engage with Polish authorities and frame a krishnendra.dubey@barclays.com

voluntary offer that works for regulators, minorities and shareholders. According to Polish Barclays, UK

takeover law, a bidder-led offer for all remaining shares would enable a controlled ownership

Namita Samtani, CFA

increase without first triggering the mandatory follow-up offer regime; regulated sectors such as

+44 (0)20 3134 2583

banks/insurers require prior supervisory approval. We believe a best case scenario is the group namita.samtani@barclays.com

increasing its stake in Poland by up to 26% via a voluntary offer (getting the group to 75% Barclays, UK

ownership) which we estimate could cost c.€4bn1 and reduces CET1 by 134bps, leaving capital

close to target after mitigation (figure 15). For illustrative purposes, our analysis shows a stake