The Nitty Griddy: 2028/29 Capacity Auction Results Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

The Nitty Griddy: 2028/29 Capacity Auction Results Takeaways

aboration with Google's Tapestry to use AI to compress interconnection study

timelines, and a new PJM-facilitated process (launched June 9) for long-term bilateral contracts

between large-load customers and generators. As in prior auctions, the RTO failed the Three-

Pivotal Supplier Test, triggering market power mitigation across all existing generation resources

and constraining offer prices.

What it means for the group: Near-term capacity revenue is optically flat to modestly lower at

the $325 cap, and the collar continues to cap realized upside for a third straight year, a point of

fair balance for investors underwriting IPP capacity earnings. The more important signal, in our

view, is duration: PJM set the cap and floor for four auctions, and with three now complete, only

the 2029/2030 BRA, scheduled for December, remains under the collar as PJM works back

toward a three-year-forward cycle. We believe the widening gap between economic clearing

prices near $555/MW-day and the administratively capped print skews longer-term pricing risk

to the upside once the collar rolls off, though we would flag that FERC could extend or modify

the mechanism, and an easing of permitting and siting constraints or the success of PJM's

backstop and interconnection reforms could add supply and temper that scarcity over time. We

expect incremental company-specific color at upcoming conferences and on the Q2 calls, where

we will be pressing management teams on how much of this uncapped scarcity they can capture

as the collar approaches its final year.

PJM Base Residual Auction Price History

Overall, supply offered into the 2028/2029 BRA increased 3,447 MW (UCAP), from 136,148 MW