Strong Execution Counts; Unlocking Cloud and MaaS Potential; Reaffirm Top Pick

Research evidence excerpt

Strong Execution Counts; Unlocking Cloud and MaaS Potential; Reaffirm Top Pick

China (PRC) | Internet

Alibaba EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

COMPANY UPDATEStrong Execution Counts; Unlocking Cloud

RATING BUYand MaaS Potential; Reaffirm Top Pick

PRICE $98.14^

We expect BABA to demonstrate strong execution despite macro

headwinds with combined EBITA for China e-commerce and AIDC to be PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $185.00 | +89%

flattish YoY in Jun-Q. Softness in industry GMV growth is in the price. QC 52W HIGH-LOW $192.67 - $91.99

fundamentals came in better than expectations. For AliCloud, we expect it FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.2% | 1,198.27

to accelerate YoY and perform better than expectations on strengths in AI MARKET CAP $227.9B

demand and MaaS. Sequential improvement in cloud margin is expected. TICKER BABA ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Reaffirm top pick on AI story ahead. noted.

RATING BUY

Jun-26 quarter earnings preview. In our view, macro headwinds and softness in consumer

sentiment are in the price, and we expect BABA to demonstrate solid execution during the TICKER 9988 HK

quarter. We factor in (1) softer CMR assumptions due to industry GMV trend; (2) solid execution PRICE HK$95.80^

with YoY gap between China e-commerce EBITA and CMR (gross) to narrow in Jun-Q vs PRICE TARGET | % TO PT HK$179.00 | +87%

Mar-Q; (3) better QC fundamentals; (4) combined EBITA for China e-commerce and AIDC are

flattish YoY; (5) AliCloud revenue and margins perform better than expectations. As a result,

FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

we estimate total revenue growth of 9% YoY (in line with consensus) to RMB270bn. For China

E-commerce Group, we estimate CMR to decline by about 6.5% YoY (vs consensus at 1% YoY 2027 2028 2027 2028