Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (Buy) - Two tales of one company

Research evidence excerpt

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (Buy) - Two tales of one company

Global Markets Research

Alibaba Group Holding BABA.N BABA US 24 June 2026

EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA

RatingTwo tales of one company Remains Buy

Target price

Robust AI cloud, weak e-commerce; maintain Buy Reduced from USD 178.00 USD 207.00

Revising down forecasts on weaker e-commerce; maintain Buy on robust AI cloud Closing23 June price2026 USD 102.60

business

The China e-commerce market likely weakened further in the June quarter, as evidenced by Implied upside +73.5%tepid June 18 promotion season sales. According to Syntun, an independent research firm, the

gross merchandise value (GMV) for comprehensive e-commerce platforms likely rose just 1% Market Cap (USD mn) 246,318.0

y-y during the one-month June 18 promotion season. The weak retail market, plagued by a ADT (USD mn) 1,400.5

high base effect and macro headwinds, likely played a significant role. Based on conversations

with our industry sources, we believe Douyin (unlisted) was one of the few major platforms that Relative performance chart

saw positive GMV growth during the June 18 period, while most others, including Alibaba

(BABA US, Buy), likely experienced y-y declines.

NomuraChinainternetteamwillhostagroupcallat9:30AMon30June2026withan

operationmanagerfromDouyinecommercedivisiontoshedsomelightonthecompetitive

dynamicsandoutlookofChina’secommerceindustry.PleaseapproachyourNomurasalesto

registerforthecallifinterested.

Against this backdrop, we are now projecting flat y-y like-for-like customer management

revenue (CMR) in the June quarter for BABA, while reported CMR may have declined 8% y-y

(compared to the Bloomberg consensus of a flat CMR). BABA's quick commerce (QC) loss