China Internet & New Media - Takeaways from Douyin ecommerce expert call

Research evidence excerpt

China Internet & New Media - Takeaways from Douyin ecommerce expert call

Nomura | China Internet & New Media 5 July 2026

• Softening consumption: Overall consumption momentum has softened since late

March, with weakness increasing in online retail alongside offline channels.

• High base effect: Last year’s 618 created a high base, as major platforms—including

Taobao/Tmall, Douyin, and JD—were significantly aggressive with promotions and

subsidies.

• Simplified mechanics: This year’s promotional mechanics were simplified and

proved less effective at driving incremental GMV through cross-selling.

• Fading subsidy tailwinds: Categories previously boosted by trade-in subsidies,

especially home appliances and consumer electronics, have started to lose

momentum as subsidies retreat and earlier demand was front-loaded into last year.

Subsidy spending increased in absolute terms, but the expert emphasized that the

intensity remained disciplined. Douyin’s consumer-end subsidy spending during the 618

campaign (which lasted for around 35 days) was close to CNY3.5bn, vs. CNY2.6bn–

CNY2.7bn last year. However, the average discount rate was only around 15%, lower

than last year’s roughly 17%. This suggests that while total subsidy spending rose due to

scale, the platform was not materially more aggressive regarding discount intensity.

According to the expert, Douyin ecommerce continues to be plagued by a high return rate.

The 1Q26 return/refund rate was around 47%, implying a settlement rate of roughly 53%.

The high return rate was mainly due to category mix and purchase behavior. Apparel,

bags, and shoes currently account for roughly 38% of Douyin ecommerce’s GMV; these

non-standard categories historically carry higher return rates. Additionally, Douyin’s live-