JD.com: 2Q26e preview: resilient earnings despite macro headwinds

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JD.com: 2Q26e preview: resilient earnings despite macro headwinds

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JD.com

2Q26e preview: resilient earnings despite

macro headwinds

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 38.00 USD | Price: 28.88 USD

Stable JDR margins and narrowing delivery losses 14 July 2026

We forecast 2Q26e total net revenues of RMB345bn (-3.2% YoY), down from +4.9% YoY Equity

in 1Q, reflecting a high base from last year's trade-in subsidy-driven June promotion and

softer smartphone/3C demand this year amid memory-led price hikes. We expect JDR

Key Changesrevenues to decline 5.3% YoY to RMB 293bn (vs. +1.8% in 1Q), broadly tracking the

softer industry trend. NBS data showed China’s online physical goods retail sales growth (CNY) Previous Current

slowing to +1.5% YoY in April-May, down from +7.5% in 1Q. Meanwhile, we expect net Price Obj. US$37.00 US$38.00

service revenue to grow 8% YoY. We estimate JDR operating profit of RMB13.4bn, 2026E EPS 16.86 17.03

implying a 4.6% margin, broadly stable YoY. We model new initiatives losses of 2027E EPS 23.73 24.01

RMB9.6bn in 2Q, narrowing from RMB10.4bn one quarter ago. As a result, we forecast 2028E EPS 28.24 28.57

2Qe non-GAAP net profit of RMB8.5bn (+15% YoY), above consensus of RMB7.6bn.

Food delivery discipline underpins profit growth JoyceResearchJu >>Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

We estimate 2Q26e food delivery losses of RMB6bn, down from RMB7bn in 1Q26, as +852 3508 3371

average daily orders surpass 15mn and loss per order falls below RMB4. For FY26e, we joyce.ju@bofa.com

forecast food delivery losses of RMB25bn, as continued order growth and scale Joanna Du >>

Research Analyst

efficiencies drive further improvement in profitability. We project FY26e new initiatives Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)