2Q26 Card Preview: The Consumer Powers Through - Good Credit & Spend

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Card Preview: The Consumer Powers Through - Good Credit & Spend

Consumer Finance

Equity Research

July 8, 2026

optionality. Sponsors tried to attach the CCCA to a housing bill in March, which was unsuccessful, but

this strategy remains.

CCAR results were broadly positive for card issuers; AXP, COF, and SYF. AXP's implied SCB of 2.5%

(unchanged) translates to a CET1 minimum requirement of 7.0% (unchanged). COF's implied SCB of

3.6% (down -90 bps from 4.5%) translates to a CET1 minimum requirement of 8.1% (down from 9.0%).

SYF's SCB of 2.5% results in a CET1 minimum of 7.0% which is flat vs its prior requirement of 7.0%.

See our CCAR note here.

M&A updates:

AXP announced the sale of its 30% equity interest in Global Business Travel Group in May, pursuant

to Long Lake Management taking the company private in an all-cash deal. Upon the deal closing,

expected in 2H26, AXP expects to receive proceeds of ~$1.5B and recognize a pretax gain of ~$975M.

Management will likely reinvest some of this into the business and use a portion for share repurchases,

in line with uses in past sales. FY26 guidance does not include the 1x gain.

AXP announced a proposed acquisition of TheFork for $700M in cash in mid-June, an online

restaurant reservation and management platform operating in Europe. The deal enhances AXP's dining

offerings in Europe, part of a recent focus to expand globally and increase customer engagement, with

dining being a key channel for engagement. TheFork currently connects more than 50,000 restaurants

across 11 European countries and is expected to expand AXP's dining network to 75,000 venues. The

transaction is expected to close before the end of 2026.

AI Updates:

AXP partnered with Anthropic to integrate Resy into Claude, enabling users to discover and book U.S.