Trusting the Process ...2Q Call Takes

Research evidence excerpt

Trusting the Process ...2Q Call Takes

Flash Note Financials | Specialty Finance

July 24, 2026

American Express Company John Pancari Girard Sweeney 212 497 0861 646 551 8503

AXP | $340.84 john.pancari@evercoreisi.com girard.sweeney@evercoreisi.com

In Line | Target Price/Base Case: $380.00 Russ Anderson

Company Update 212-497-0887

Russ.Anderson@evercoreisi.com

Stock pullback likely tied to greater than expected business investment. AXP’s shares are underperforming today - down 4-

5% - post 2Q results and the 8:30 AM EST call. In our view, while the pullback in the shares is more than we had anticipated, we

believe the underperformance relates to the size of planned reinvestment of fundamental outperformance into business initiatives,

which has been cited by management (on last qtr’s call & today). AXP explicitly acknowledged that the upside FY26 revenue guide

revision will be reinvested, and therefore AXP’s FY26 EPS guide was unchanged today. However, AXP also recorded an

incremental $191M loan loss reserve release in 2Q (+$0.21 per share) – which in our view, is also expected to be reinvested given

mgmt did not increase the FY26 EPS guide nor call out a reason for a reserve build in 2H26. The likelihood that reserve releases

are also to be reinvested appears to be increasing investors’ estimates of the size of the planned AXP business investment – and

likely impacting earnings expectations for 2027. However, as a Sixers fan hearing the LeBron news… sometimes you have to trust

the process.

FY26 revenue guide raised to 10%; upside not expected to fall to bottom line. Mgmt raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to

10% (9-10% prior) on stronger-than-expected 1H momentum, while maintaining FY26 EPS of $17.30-$17.90. Mgmt again noted