American Express JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard - Preview

Research evidence excerpt

American Express JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard - Preview

2% Y/Y in 2026.

• Dividend: In 4Q25, AXP announced an ~16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95

starting 1Q26. We expect the dividend to be sustained at this level throughout 2026 and

model an increase in 2027.

• New card acquisition: During prior earnings calls, mgmt. noted an ongoing shift

towards a more premium portfolio and a reallocation of marketing dollars towards

premium fee-paying cards and away from lower-cost cashback products. This

premiumization trend continued in 1Q26, with AXP acquiring 3.1 million new cards and

over 70% of new accounts globally on fee-based products, reflecting healthy demand for

premium offerings. Millennial and Gen-Z spending growth remains robust, and within

the U.S. Platinum portfolio mgmt. cited accelerated spending growth following the

refresh while maintaining high retention after the fee increase took effect. Investors will

be watching to see whether this premiumization and fee-paying mix shift continues at

pace, alongside the pace of new account growth.

Intra-Quarter Commentary:

• AXP was present at an industry conference in June (6/9/26).

• Mgmt. sees broad-based strength with QTD billings tracking slightly above 1Q26 (+9%

FX-adjusted), no inflection across cohorts, and strong new card demand; T&E (notably

airlines) and luxury retail (+18% globally last quarter) remain standouts, and higher gas

prices have not crowded out other spend.

• Modest inflation is slightly accretive to Amex given discount revenue/NII pass-through

and lagging expenses.

• AXP is weeks away from launching the first version of its Center-based expense

management platform for the middle market.

1. Source: JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA, JPMC Index File 2.0, select Chase credit and debit card