Slowdown at overseas business to weigh on share price over the short term

Research evidence excerpt

Slowdown at overseas business to weigh on share price over the short term

8 July 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Small & Mid Cap

Price Objective Change

Metawater (9551)

Rating: Neutral Price Objective ¥3,800 ¥3,500

Spotlight: See Figure 3 for our view by ACT: Reiterating Neutral rating

segment We reiterate our Neutral on Metawater but lower our price objective. The

share price has been trending down since peaking at the end of February,

Share price (7 Jul) ¥3,265 which we think is mainly attributable to a correction of the excessiveImplied upside +7%

expectations for its overseas business priced in as the primary growth driver.TSE Segment Prime

Thus, although we expect stable and sustained earnings growth for its

Major indicators (E = Mizuho estimates) three domestic businesses (environmental engineering, system solution,Market capitalization (¥b) 144.50

Shares outstanding (m) 44.26 and operation), we think the stock lacks the upside explosiveness sufficient

Potential share dilution (m) – to justify the high 18x PER valuation of the previous peak. We believe theDaily turnover (thou, mo. avg.) 128.33

Foreign ownership (%, 3/26) 26.9 stock entering a clear reversal phase requires confirmation of the successful

DPS(¥, 3/27E) 80.0 ramp-up of its new product Nereda, which is positioned as the next growthDividend Yield(%, 3/27E) 2.5

Payout ratio(%, 3/27E) 34.7 driver for the overseas business. We would also like to see a convincing new

Equity ratio(%, 3/27E) 41.3 earnings expansion story for the three domestic businesses. We anticipateBPS(¥, 3/27E) 2,207.5

PBR(x, 3/27E) 1.5 the former from around FY3/28 at the earliest.

ROE(%, 3/27E NP basis) 10.9

ROA(%, 3/27E RP basis) 6.5 KNOW: Forecasting firm domestic businesses despite apparent

Note: No.