Food Retail Pricing Survey: Pricing Firms w/ Inflationary Tailwind, but Early Signs of KR Investment

Research evidence excerpt

Food Retail Pricing Survey: Pricing Firms w/ Inflationary Tailwind, but Early Signs of KR Investment

Equity Research

Industry Update — July 8, 2026

Food & Staples Retail

Food Retail Pricing Survey: Pricing Firms w/

Inflationary Tailwind, but Early Signs of KR

Investment

Our Call Edward Kelly, CFA

Our survey suggests a firmer pricing backdrop as rollbacks eased, though KR's basket fell Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Edward.J.Kelly@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5304

seq on what could be early results of investment. Overall gaps still in line with history, but

John Parkesigns of intensifying competition growing. Remain selective.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

John.Parke@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-3327

WMT's Basket Rose w/ Inflation Tailwind: Our pricing survey suggests WMT's basket Adam Gregorio

rose 2.5% in June '26 (vs. Dec '25), with all 16 markets we cover seeing price increases. Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

WMT's basket totaled $311.81 after remaining ~$304 for the past two years and was up Adam.Gregorio@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8117

1.9% y/y, as 35 of 75 products increased (Exhibit 4). The y/y increase was largely driven by

Coffee (+$2.4 y/y) and Ground Beef (+$2.0); ex. these two items, growth would have been

+0.5%. Rollbacks eased but remained above the longer-term trend.

Some Early Sign of KR Investment: Pricing at KR fell 1.6% in June vs. Dec '25, with only

2 of 14 markets posting increases. Cereals (-4.7%) and Protein (-3.4%) led declines,

while Beverages (+5.6%) was the lone category to increase. Y/Y growth accelerated

to 3.2% from 1.9% in Dec. '25, with 48 of 75 products posting increases (Exhibit 11).

Rollbacks were stable seq. but below year-ago levels (Exhibit 12). While KR's basket is