RSLI: 2H Deceleration, Not Disaster

Research evidence excerpt

RSLI: 2H Deceleration, Not Disaster

Consumer | Retail Broadlines & Hardlines

July 10, 2026

Greg Melich, CFA RSLI: 2H Deceleration, Not Disaster

212-446-9484 Even with a 10bp m/m improvement to +3.0%, our RSLI continues

Greg.Melich@evercoreisi.com to suggest a moderating Retail Sales environment for 2H26. Tax

Michael Montani, CFA cuts remain a yoy tailwind, but with tax refund season behind us, energy

212-446-5655 is likely to bear more heavily on consumer sentiment. If we normalize

Michael.Montani@evercoreisi.com

our energy volatility input, our RSLI would instead suggest 2H sales

Oliver Wintermantel

running up 3.6% (Fig 1). While still below our expectation of around +4 212-497-0864

Oliver.Wintermantel@evercoreisi.com to 4.5% growth, the difference shrinks to <100bps, which we credit to

Daragh Regan higher inflation (AUR hikes post-tariffs). Early Spring had the benefit of

212-446-5603 higher tax refunds to mask the effects of higher gas prices. But with that

Daragh.Regan@evercoreisi.com tailwind all but rolled off, Oscar’s survey signals a slower start to

summer, despite a pull forward shift in Amazon’s Prime Day, perhaps

impacted by the distractions of World Cup. Recall, retail sales have

been firmly strong YTD, with May’s +6.3% increase showcasing

breadth across categories.

Back to School looks set to be a Big Beautiful Moment of

Truth. Our work related to BBB stimulus from earlier this year pointed

us toward an April/May peak and now with significant gasoline/general

energy-related input costs rising, discretionary spend appears most at

risk. The good news is that we believe most retailers have baked in

some deceleration. Target’s 1Q +5% comp is expected to slow to

closer to 3%. Walmart and Costco’s ability to drive traffic through value

likely gains traction.