UPST - Quick Take - June Volume +48% Y/Y, 2Q26 Volume +50% Y/Y

Research evidence excerpt

UPST - Quick Take - June Volume +48% Y/Y, 2Q26 Volume +50% Y/Y

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report July 6, 2026

TMT: Artificial Intelligence, Digital Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

Platforms and IT Services

UPST - Quick Take - June Volume +48% Y/Y, 2Q26 Volume +50%

Arvind Ramnani Y/Y

214-969-5873

Arvind.Ramnani@truist.com

Upstart's origination volumes are up 50% y/y in 2Q26, which we continue to view as

Wayne Trinh, CFA supportive of strong top-line growth, with 0.97 correlation to revenue growth. Upstart

212-590-0911 reported June loan origination volumes grew 48% y/y to $1.50B. Through 2Q26, Upstart's

Wayne.Trinh@truist.com volumes are up 50% y/y to $4.23B. We found a 0.97 correlation between Upstart's monthly

origination volume y/y growth and the company's total revenue y/y growth, and therefore

continue to see the origination data as supportive of strong 2Q26 top-line growth. Upstart's

FY26 guidance implies total revenue is expected to grow 34% y/y to ~$1.4B, and we are

Current Price (Jul. 3, $34.78 currently modeling 30% y/y growth in 2Q26 vs. consensus of 34% y/y. For reference, UPST's 2026)

origination volumes grew 61% y/y in 1Q26 compared to 44% y/y revenue growth.

Stock Rating BUY Upstart's June loan origination volumes grew 48% y/y to $1.50B. This marks 3% m/ Unchanged

m growth (vs. 6% m/m growth last year) and a deceleration from 52% y/y growth in May.

Price Target $40.00 For 2Q, origination volumes are up 50% y/y, which we view as supportive for strong top-line

Unchanged growth as we have found a 0.97 correlation between volume growth and revenue growth.

UPST Origination Volume by Month

$1,600 $60

5 Page Document $1,400

$50

$1,200

$40

$1,000 Reasons for this report

$800 $30

✓ Quick Reaction to Newsflow/Volatility $600 $20

$400

$10

$200

$0 $0