Upstart Holdings, Inc.: 2026 MS Financials Conference Recap – Bottom Line Inflection Coming

Research evidence excerpt

Upstart Holdings, Inc.: 2026 MS Financials Conference Recap – Bottom Line Inflection Coming

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenue from fees ($, mm) 950 1,327 1,682 2,119

Adj. EBITDA ($, mm) 230 297 422 574

Adj. Net Income ($, mm) 185 251 377 527

Adj. Diluted EPS 1.77 2.31 3.19 4.25

Contribution Margin (%) 55.9 53.7 55.1 56.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Credit performance RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Supply of capital from institutional investors Personal lending TAM expansion, promoting

Cadence of market share gains continued elevated growth Sales /

Expansion into adjacent verticals Credit performance strong through tighter Revenue 1,377 1,465

Interest rates conditions, displaying underwriting superiority ($, mm) 1,412

Pace of expansion into Auto exceeds

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE expectations 297

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 289 320

($, mm)

Credit performance suffers, challenging the 297

100% North America pace of future growth

Tightening capital supply reduces investor

2.31

funding EPS

2.04 2.53 Interest rates rise, impairing credit ($)Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 2.32 performance, funding, and valuationsView explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MS ALPHA MODELS Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Inst. Owners, % Active 40.5%

3/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Quintile exposures held with MSPB. Information may be