Critical minerals preview

Research evidence excerpt

Critical minerals preview

Macquarie Equity Research Critical minerals preview

Near-term focus - FY27 volume growth

As all four lithium producers have a June year-end, we expect the market to shift its focus on

FY27 outlook in addition to the 4Q production result. Volume growth and capex intensity of

brownfield expansion could be a focus area given the recent lithium market volatility.

PLS

• Our base case has assumed capex of A$836m, A$1,136m and A$1,031m for FY27E, FY28E

and FY29E. These estimates are 25%/28%/26% above respective market consensus. We

attribute the difference to our conservative view on P2000 project cost escalation given

the PFS was conducted in mid-CY24. In addition, we have also assumed elevated deferred

stripping for FY27 as the company previously flagged that material moved in FY27 would be

~50% higher than FY26 levels.

IGO

• A fire incident occurred at Greenbushes' Chemical Grade Plant 3 (CGP3) facility on 9

June 2026. IGO subsequently confirmed that the fire has already been extinguished and

no injuries were reported. CGP3 has a nameplate capacity of ~500ktpa, but contributes

only marginally to FY26 output given ongoing ramp-up. IGO confirmed CGP1 and CGP2

remain operational. Full-year production guidance remains unchanged at 1,375-1,425kt of

spodumene concentrate.

• We expect the market to focus on IGO's FY27 production guidance which is expected at

its 4Q quarterly update. The guidance would also crystallise the fire damage and respire

time the CGP3. Our FY27E forecast production of 1.6mt (100%) of spodumene concentrate

at Greenbushes is 8% below market consensus of 1.74mt. We note media reports (link)

suggested that the repairs could take up to six months. An outage less than six months