Pre-capex 2,000

Research evidence excerpt

Pre-capex 2,000

Accelerating mine development capex in FY27. Accelerated capitalised stripping in FY27, in $500 1,000

excess of FY26 has been flagged ahead of P2000 implementation (JEFe: A$223m). We see development $250 500 Production

stripping increasing to c.4.9x (from 4.4x in FY26) in order to open new mining areas, reducing Total $0 0

development risk schedule flexibility for P2000. 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Initial capex (tot) Adj. capex (tot) Initial Prod. Adj. Prod

.

4Q highlighted by strong shipments to date. Port Headland exports suggest a strong Q4, Source: Company reports, Jefferies

with ~224kwmt quarter to date (JEFe: 251kwmt | VAe: 253kwmt) (Figure 2). 4Q shipments Figure 2 - 4Q26 Port Headland shipping

have benefited from the unwind of ~37kt of inventory built in 3Q. We forecast an escalation 45 250

40 kwmt 35 200in unit operating cost in 4Q26 to US$655/t (VAe US$620/t) as Ngungaju restart expenses are kwmt 30 4Q26

150 25 massexpensed across a flat production profile (Figure 5). 20

15 shipping Shipedd 10 50

CATL re-start likely delayed to early CY27. CATL’s Jianxiawo has gained some credible 50 0 Cumulativerestart optics following the issuance of a new land-use pre-review and site-selection opinion

and the re-classification of mining rights to lithium. We believe that a final public draft EIA, DepartureShip kwmtdate DD/MMCum. PLS

regulator acceptance notice, proposed approval, final environmental approval, updated safety- .Source: Pilbara ports, Jefferies

production licence and restart acceptance are required for a recommencement of production.

We foresee likely re-start in H1-2027.

Reiterate, BUY, AUD6.70. PLS maintains elastic production capability and a clearly defined

growth pipeline.