Insurance Brokers: EISI Surveys Point to Faster US Nominal GDP Growth, an Offset

Research evidence excerpt

Insurance Brokers: EISI Surveys Point to Faster US Nominal GDP Growth, an Offset

Financials | Global Insurance - P&C

June 30, 2026

David Motemaden, CFA Insurance Brokers: EISI Surveys Point to

212-497-0832

David.Motemaden@evercoreisi.com Faster US Nominal GDP Growth, an Offset

Thomas Gallagher, CFA to Softer Pricing

212-446-9439 Bottom Line: Improvement in EISI company surveys in 2Q26

Thomas.Gallagher@EvercoreISI.com

(+2pts overall & +4pts in Capital Goods Cos) points to solid nominal

Peter Knudsen

GDP growth in 2Q26 (we think tracking at 5.5-6%), a tailwind for 212-708-8497

Peter.Knudsen@evercoreisi.com Insurance Brokerage organic growth & an offset to softening pricing.

Nicolas Lu Fig 1 shows that nominal GDP growth is a larger driver of insurance

212-497-0812 brokerage organic growth across our coverage so the improving

Nicolas.Lu@evercoreisi.com surveys give us greater conviction in our organic growth estimates and

that solid economic growth will be an offset to continued pricing

pressures in 2Q. We increase our AJG Brokerage organic growth

estimate in 2Q26 to 4.9% from 4.6% as this gives us more confidence

in the outlook provided at the June I-Day. One caveat is that

International surveys, while improving, aren’t as strong as in the US

which is notable for WTW

We think the recent move higher in the brokers (+17% in the last month

including +26% at AJG) is more a result of them recovering from being

oversold as opposed to any material improvement in fundamentals. The

brokers have now largely recovered losses since AI disruption fears

started on Feb 8, with only MRSH (-4% lower) and WTW (-13%) lower

in our coverage that we think is a consequence of softer 1Q results at

each. Price momentum creates its own feedback loop but we think the