2Q Preview & Acquisition Inclusion

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Preview & Acquisition Inclusion

ing deferral. Delayed commissioning of Ultra Low .Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

Sulfur Fuels project is expected to complete post-T&I. ALD - Sharp upgrades driven by Refining

& acquisition inclusion - Refining margins

Supportive conditions for Trading business - Price volatility & tight supply have created finished 2Q ahead of our assumptions,

significant Trading opportunities for ALD, which we expect will be reflected in F&I International. which prompted c. 12% 2026 Group NPAT

JEFe: 1H26 F&I International EBIT of $147m which would be a record & well above normal c. upgrade. We included the acquisition in

$25m through-the-cycle run rate. our estimates, driving outer-year upgrades

to reflect high single digit accretion.Retail margins weaker in 2Q after strong 1Q - Blended retail GIRD averaged 16.0¢/L in

PT lifts from $37.50 to $38.50. The2Q, lower than 19.9¢/L in 1Q. This implies 1H26 blended retail margins of 18.0¢/L, broadly

uplift is below the expected double-digitconsistent with 2H25 at 17.8¢ and slightly above the pcp at 17.1¢/L. Australian retail fuel

free cash flow accretion, because whilevolumes have been bolstered by 50% reduction in fuel excise (26.3¢/L) & GST reduction (c.

acquisition contribution wasn't included in5.7¢/L) from 1 April to 30 June. Excise reduction will partly unwind from 1 July until 2 August

our earnings estimates, we had applied a(c. 16¢/L excise reduction). We note increased ACCC scrutiny on retail fuel margins may limit

10% premium to our valuation.margin upside given heightened concerns on fuel supply & price post US-Iran war. MBIE NZ

ceased reporting of importer margins given energy price volatility but channel checks suggest VEA - Refining upgrades & Convenience

market remains rational.