Refining, Fuels & Convenience

Research evidence excerpt

Refining, Fuels & Convenience

9 Sep-10 Oct-11 Nov-12 Dec-13 Jan-15 Feb-16 Mar-17 Apr-18 May-19 Jun-20 Jul-21 Aug-22 Sep-23 Oct-24 Nov-25

enforcement has led to a $1.2bn reduction in tobacco excise collection

Source: Australian government, May 2026

in FY26-27, and $8.0bn over the 5 years FY26-FY30 (which follows

a $6.9bn downgrade over the 5 year forward estimates in last year's Figure 3 - Weakening tobacco

budget). The budget papers note “persistently weaker-than-expected collections (ie. black market)

collections and a weaker outlook for excisable tobacco volumes A$bn Tobacco excise (gov't budget estimates)

over the forward estimates”. 20 Frydenberg

15• Fuel security & resilience: Within a ~A$12bn package: Morrison Hockey Chalmers

10 Swan Þ Fuel and Fertiliser Security Facility: Up to US$5.0bn (A$7.5bn) in

financial support (including loans, equity, guarantees, insurance & 5

price support) to increase supply & storage of fuel & fertiliser. 0

Þ Australian Fuel Security Reserve: $3.2bn to increase long-term fuel 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

supply & storage, in combination with an increase to the Minimum 20262022 (2) 20252022 20242021 20232020

Stockholding Obligation (MSO) to 50 days. Detail needed to assess 20192015 20182014 20172013 20162012

impacts on ALD & VEA, we expect likely tied to FSSP phase 2 Source: Australian government, May 2026

reforms.

Þ National Reconstruction Fund Corporation: $1.0bn to support Figure 4 - Taxing tobacco towards

zero freight, fuel, fertiliser & other critical supply chains affected by global

Tobacco excise market disruptions. $1.80$/stick

Coalition Labor Coalition Labor

$1.60

$1.40

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