Australian Refining - Refining and Retail Margins

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Refining - Refining and Retail Margins

Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney

Branch

Gordon Ramsay (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6578,

gordon.ramsay@rbccm.com

Alistair Rankin (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6551,

alistair.rankin@rbccm.com

June 15, 2026

Australian Refining - Refining and Retail MarginsRESEARCH Industry Note

Our view: Singapore refining margins peaked in late March (Iran – US war), but remain elevated

despite record global inventory drawdowns. Despite being on a declining trend, we think both gasoline

and diesel margins have held up relatively well. AIP data highlights that Australian retail fuel margins

have also generally been on a downward trend over the June quarter to date. The Australian Federal

Government’s A32 cpl reduction in fuel excise (gasoline and diesel) from 1 April is expected to be

removed at the end of June 2026. While we expect both companies to deliver relatively strong June

quarter refiner margins, we prefer Ampol over Viva Energy.EQUITY

Singapore refiner margins have posted strong June quarter to date performance. Singapore gasoline

crack spread was US$24.30/bbl as at 15 June 2026 and the average price is up +75% for the June quarter

qoq to date. Singapore diesel crack spread was US$41.37/bbl as at 15 June 2026 and the average price

is up +70% for the June quarter qoq to date.

We currently see potential for up to a 70% qoq increase in the Australian refiner margin (June qtr

data to date), although we expect unfavorable movements in crude / product premiums and freight and

insurance costs to possibly combine to reduce the Australian realised refiner margin. Even if the latest

US – Iran peace offering stands, we expect regional Singapore-based refiner margins to remain elevated