June Mortgage Monthly—Refi Holds at Low Level

Research evidence excerpt

June Mortgage Monthly—Refi Holds at Low Level

Equity Research

Flash Comment — July 1, 2026

Consumer Finance

June Mortgage Monthly—Refi Holds at Low

Level

Our Call Donald Fandetti, CFA

In our monthly, we provide data including mortgage locks, primary/sec spreads, Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Don.Fandetti@wellsfargo.com | 704-410-6093

applications, and league tables. In June, the refinance index remained stuck at low levels,

Nathaniel Richam-Odoithough did tick up this week. Sentiment for mortgage stocks remains mixed.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nathaniel.Richam-Odoi@wellsfargo.com |

212-214-8295

Initial Thoughts Steven DeBartolo, CFA

Mortgage Lock Volume Trends. Our calculated index through Tues, June 30, shows total Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

mortgage lock volume flat in Q2 vs Q1. The mortgage refinance lock index in Q2 is down Steven.Debartolo@wellsfargo.com | 201-739-8679

59% from Q1, while purchase is up 23% on seasonality (see Exhibits 1-2). June refi index

of 12 was steady with May's 12, yet below April at 16. However, the refi index moved

higher this week to 16 (June 29-30, in front of the holiday). The refi index dropped from

44 in late Feb to 12 currently, as the 10 yr yield rose.

Industry Forecasts May Be Too Optimistic. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates

$2.2T in origination for 2026 through 2028. Fannie Mae is more optimistic at $2.3T in

2026 and $2.5T in 2027. However, our conversations with company mgmt teams suggest

that a $2.3T market is unlikely in 2026 given refi weakness.

Primary / Secondary Spreads Widen in June. The primary / secondary spread through

June widened to an avg of 1.14%, up 9.4% m/m or 9bps. Spreads ended the month at the