2Q26 Preview Series - HVAC Distributor Survey

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview Series - HVAC Distributor Survey

Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry

Distributors - Market Underweight

Industrial Technology - Market Weight

Multi-Industry - Market Weight

2Q26 Preview Series - HVAC Distributor Survey July 1, 2026

Survey Says... Stability Not Recovery

The Wolfe Byte

We were a little underwhelmed by LSD R-HVAC growth, with distributors citing continued challenges from ramping

inflation and a consumer preference for system repairs vs. replace. Commercial stocks look better positioned; CARR

should be able to guide above conservative plan.

We surveyed 25 North American HVAC distributors in late June to assess the latest trends in the market. This marks

the sixth iteration of our HVAC Distributor Survey following updates in Sept '25, June '25, Jan ‘25, Sept ‘24, and June ’24.

Overall, 2Q26 residential market demand came in softer than expectations, as indicated by half of distributors. Growth

came in at ~2% Y/Y ($ basis) - which is below HARDI and AHRI data (both +5% in April) and WSO commentary

(sales +HSD in March - trend continued into April). Commercial sentiment was much more bullish - half of respondents

reported that demand came in better than expected, with sales up ~4% Y/Y. See pages 15-20 for details.

Residential expectations for 3Q26 are in a similar zone (units +2%). We are surprised by this result – we understand

that the 2H25 channel de-stock creates easier comps, but weakness last year was also precipitated by a short, cool

summer and a shift towards repair activity. Thus, it would be surprising if 2H sell-through did not improve, but we see

clearer line to acceleration (and a preference) for sell-in leverage. For Commercial, the 3Q outlook is more encouraging.

Once again, we queried distributors on OEM share dynamics.