Carrier Global Corp.: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Carrier Global Corp.: Risk Reward Update

L '26 JUL '27 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 1 Jul

2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $80.00 BASE CASE $60.00 BEAR CASE $40.00

~24.0x Our Bull Case blended 2027/28 EPS ~19.5x Our Base Case blended 2027/28 EPS ~15.5x Our Bear Case blended 2027/28 EPS

of $3.35 of $3.10 of $2.59

Model a return to MSD % organic in 2026- Model US Resi facing further softness in Model organic declines in 2026 followed by

28 driven by US Resi growth on market F'26, mitigated by Commercial strength flat growth in '27 and +LSD in 2028. as resi

recovery, durable pricing power, Transport driving HVAC organic to L-MSD through softness, sharp declines for US Light

and Viessmann recovery, and data center 2028. We model Viessman recovering to Commercial, and continued Int'l pressure

momentum. We model LDD organic for MSD+ by 2027 but still below long-term (incl. Viessman) offset growth in Applied

CHVAC and HSD organic for Viessman. We trend. We see margin risk on absorption CHVAC (M-HSD organic). We model margin

model incrementals dragged in 2026 by headwinds amid Resi volume softness. Our compression in 2026 and modest expansion

absorption headwinds but recovering in ~19.5x multiple represents a MSD % S&P in 2027 as absorption headwinds persist and

2027/28.