Carrier 1Q Wrap and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Carrier 1Q Wrap and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 May 2026

Carrier Neutral

CARR, CARR US

1Q Wrap and Model Update Price (13 May 26):$65.57

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$67.00

Prior (Dec-26):$63.00

CARR’s print was a beat on sales, with no change to guidance following the the

trend this HVAC earnings season of weak residential results but better than low Electrical Equipment & Multi-

Industryexpectations, with CHVAC orders standing out positively. This has been more

positive generally for the more CHVAC exposed names (JCI/TT both beat and Patrick M. Baumann, CFA AC

raised guidance), and less so for the more resi exposed ones (CARR/LII). Daikin’s (1-212) 622-0160

patrick.m.baumann@jpmchase.com

report this week was more of the same, but with their outperformance in resi over

the past year a headwind to CARR/other OEMs that should start to fade somewhat. Chigusa Katoku

(1-212) 622-0855

The resi market outlook remains muted per Daikin. Additionally, differences in chigusa.katoku@jpmchase.com

manufacturing footprints could potentially cause some differences in pricing

Piyush Khaitan

strategies this year, a watch item for CARR given the HSD price it put through (1-212) 622-0605

broadly across its RLC equipment. On the positive side, the company is seeing piyush.khaitan@jpmchase.com

strong orders for data center, with sales in that vertical still expected to grow 50% J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

this year globally to $1.5 B, it’s just smaller in context of the entire porfolio (7%

of enterprise sales) than it is at others, so less of an impact. We come away

Key Changes (FYE Dec)increasing estimates to reflect the 1Q beat, and our Dec-2026 price target moves

up to $67 (from $63 prior), embedding a 5-10% discount to the sector, in line with Prev Cur Δ

Adj.