Evercore ISI's Best ‘Core’ Ideas

Research evidence excerpt

Evercore ISI's Best ‘Core’ Ideas

July 01, 2026

McDonald's Corp (MCD) David Palmer

Outperform; PT $350

◼ We believe the US McDonald’s system is coming together with improved dialogue and collaboration. The company is

including some profit protection from value menu changes (potentially upward of a $0.15/share EPS hit spread over next two

quarters). In addition, the company has listened to franchisees in easing some requirements (e.g., reimaging schedule, store

visits, and renewal requirements). These moves helped a nearly unanimous franchisee approval of the value marketing strategy.

◼ A positive rate of change for US SSS growth. Updated value constructs should be a significant tailwind to McDonald’s US

SSS growth over the next few quarters. We forecast US SSS growth of 3% in 3Q (cons. 2.5%), 5% in 4Q (cons. 4%), and 5% in

1Q26 (cons. 4%), but we do believe our estimates in 4Q and 1Q26 are conservative. In addition, the price point certainty across

the country will allow national advertising behind both promotions this fall, which will also benefit from 1) easier comparisons

starting in late October against E. coli, and 2) other to-be-announced promotions.

◼ International Operated Markets (IOM) gaining momentum. IOM 2Q SSS accelerated to +4% YoY including market share

gains across most of its largest markets despite a challenged backdrop. We believe International Operating Markets (IOM) is

gaining momentum as it benefits from stronger marketing and value offers (e.g. France, Germany, and Australia). Within the

division, France posted positive guest counts driven by its value meal bundles starting under €3. In addition to France, Germany

and Australia also are growing sales and guest counts with sales momentum expected to continue in the 2H.

◼ A favorable backdrop.