Braskem Reversing Course: Downgrading to Neutral as Petrochemical Uplift Fades and Restructuring Risk Rises

Research evidence excerpt

Braskem Reversing Course: Downgrading to Neutral as Petrochemical Uplift Fades and Restructuring Risk Rises

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

30 June 2026

Braskem

Reversing Course: Downgrading to Neutral as

Petrochemical Uplift Fades and Restructuring Risk

Rises

We are downgrading Braskem to Neutral, with a new fair value and Dec-26 PT of Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

R$7.5/sh (vs. R$15/sh prior). Additionally, we are withdrawing our Dec-26 PT of Milene Clifford Carvalho AC

$5.50 for the ADRs. Last month, we adopted a more constructive view on Braskem (55-11) 4950-3475

based on two pillars beyond valuation: governance improvement and a milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

petrochemical scenario uplift that could support more favorable negotiating terms Henrique Cunha, CFA

with debt holders. While the new bylaws and shareholders' agreement remain an (55 11) 4950 3623

henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

improvement over the previous structure, and petrochemical spreads continue to

Rodolfo Angele, CFA

hold above pre-conflict levels, the latest CMA expectations were revised

(55-11) 4950-3888

downward as the ceasefire and the recent US-Iran MOU progressed - eroding the rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

durability that was essential to a more constructive view. In addition, the Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

publication of the restructuring materials provides greater visibility into the

ongoing negotiations with creditors and indicates that the equity story is now

primarily driven by the restructuring outcome rather than fundamentals. While we

continue to view an out-of-court restructuring (EJ) as the preferred path, creditors

have explicitly called for greater shareholder burden-sharing while rejecting

management's initial proposal. As a result, we believe the range of potential