Braskem Negotiations continue to crack a path forward

Research evidence excerpt

Braskem Negotiations continue to crack a path forward

rojecting 2026 EBITDA of approximately US$2.2

billion—below our estimates and consensus of approximately US$2.6 billion. The company

used industry consultant reference spreads as of May 2026 as the basis for its pricing

assumptions across PE and PP in Brazil, the US, and Europe, though it applied more

conservative assumptions for PE in Brazil specifically, reflecting the view that US export

volumes are distorting domestic market conditions and compressing realized terms. EBITDA

is expected to decline to approximately US$1.5 billion in both 2027 and 2028—broadly in

line with what we had assumed as a conservative medium-term average for the name. From

2029 onward, the plan projects a step-up toward US$1.7 billion and above US$2.0 billion by

2031, driven by the Transforma Rio project adding 220 kton/year of incremental ethylene

capacity and utilization rates normalizing in the 73-74% range. We note that the plan does not

incorporate any additional operational efficiencies or cost savings—this is notable given that

IG4 appointed a transformation officer specifically tasked with improving efficiency and

executing a degree of operational turnaround. More broadly, the petrochemical sector has

proven highly unpredictable—the 2026 spread improvement was itself a function of

geopolitical conflict rather than a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics, and it is

already fading. Having conviction on a sustained recovery from 2030 onward is therefore

difficult. This creates an internal inconsistency in the proposal: if management genuinely

believes the recovery is achievable over time, a simpler amend-and-extend on the near-term

maturities plus some potential new money could have been contemplated as a starting point