Global Chemicals Navigating choppy waters

Research evidence excerpt

Global Chemicals Navigating choppy waters

17 June 2026

Equities

Chemicals Global Chemicals

Navigating choppy waters Global

◆ Sector has seen a shift from prolonged oversupply to a Sriharsha Pappu*

geopolitically induced supply shock Global Head of Energy & Materials

HSBC Bank plc

sriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com

◆ We continue to view current pricing spikes as a one-off boost, +44 20 7991 9243

with a return to trough margins by end of 2026 Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

◆ We update estimates and TPs as we revise product prices; ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

upgrade Maaden to Buy; all other ratings unchanged +44 20 7992 3302

Lilyanna Yang, CFA

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

Disruption turns oversupply into tightness: The chemical sector has shifted from a HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com

backdrop of prolonged oversupply to a geopolitically driven supply shock following the +1 212 525 0990

disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Availability has tightened across multiple value Swati Soni*

chains as shipping constraints and feedstock interruptions have cut effective supply, lifting Associate

Bangalore

prices. The Middle East chemical sector is up c16% since the conflict began, while the

Platts chemical index is up c30%. Q1’26 had two distinct periods: Jan/Feb reflecting

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

trough conditions and normal volume cadence, while March captured first-order not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

dislocation effects—sharper pricing, constrained logistics, and inventory draws.

Q2 reset: Companies have largely converged on a mitigation playbook – consisting

of a) rerouting volumes where feasible b) expanding warehousing and floating