Post Stress Test Dividend Increases Are Good

Research evidence excerpt

Post Stress Test Dividend Increases Are Good

Equity Research

Industry Update — June 24, 2026

Large-Cap Banks

Call Us Old Fashioned, but we Like Cash Flow, Profits, and

Dividends

Our Call Mike Mayo, CFA

Least stressful stress test for investors to-date. That's given the direction of travel, Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Mike.Mayo@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5300

improved predictability, and the Fed's pause to revise models. The main new news: 8

Christopher Spahr, CFAdividend increases (so far) by avg 13%—led by GS +25%.

Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Christopher.Spahr@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5301

No new news is good news for this annual ritual. The Fed previously said that they would Robert Rutschow

hold SCB's constant while they revamp models, which is likely the reason the Fed allowed Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

banks to immediately increase dividends vs. waiting 2 days as in years past. We also see Robert.Rutschow@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5302

the timing of the dividend increases as tied to the cadence created over the past 10+ Hayden Girard, CFA

years, when the ability to increase dividends was dependent on Fed approval. Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Hayden.Girard@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5303

The Fed took a pause to keep results constant while they revamp a test that some have

termed outdated. Results do not impact current capital ratios, 2 yr. averaging in 2027

seems unlikely, and today banks have plenty of excess capital (we est. $200B vs. reg

minimums). The winners are those who would have lower SCBs by 70bp (FITB), 60bp (KEY,

MS), and 40bp (Citi); and the potential losers would have higher SCBs of 30bp (GS and

JPM) - but the substance is that this does not matter. .