Arctic: Swedbank - Q2e: Should benefit from good momentum in the Baltics

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Swedbank - Q2e: Should benefit from good momentum in the Baltics

Swedbank Buy Hold

SWEDA SS | Banking | Equity Company Update | 24 June 2026 | 07:28 Sell

Q2e: Should benefit from good momentum in the Baltics Financials and estimates changes Target SEK

350.00 (340.00)

Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26e Dec-27e Dec-28eWe model a Q2e EPS of SEK 6.33, with NII supported by one additional interest day Front(SEKm)Page Financials

and continued strong Baltic volume growth, partly offset by higher market funding costs. Highlights

We raise our FY26-27e NII estimates by 2% and 1%, respectively, as Baltic growth, low- Net interest income 49,267 44,000 45,507 47,702 49,446 Recommendation Hold

cost deposit funding and stabilizing mortgage margins support earnings into H2, while Revenue 74,104 68,735 70,562 73,929 76,436 Target Price SEK(340.00)350.00

we lower FY26e loan losses slightly as well. Swedbank continues to offer sector-leading Profit before write-downs 48,728 43,240 42,844 46,154 48,266 Share Price SEK 357.6

profitability and a strong capital-return story, which is also reflected in a relative valuation Operating profit 48,996 43,274 41,555 44,138 46,048 Upside (%) (2.1)

Pre-tax profit 44,977 40,292 39,019 41,838 43,848

premium though and we see the share is fairly valued currently. We reiterate our Hold Market cap (SEKm) 402,227

Net income 35,658 31,797 31,052 33,052 34,640

recommendation with a SEK 350 (340) target price ahead of the Q2 report. Number of shares (m) 1,125

EPS 31.7 28.3 27.6 29.4 30.8

We model a Q2 EPS of SEK 6.33 Adj. EPS 31.7 28.3 27.6 29.4 30.8 12 months share price performance:

440 Performance (%) 3M 6M 1YWe forecast NII of SEK 11.38bn, up 2% q/q, supported by one additional interest day, continued EPS growth (%) 1.6 (10.8) (2.3) 6.4 4.8