Nordic Banks: Pre 2Q26: Navigating Muddy Waters

Research evidence excerpt

Nordic Banks: Pre 2Q26: Navigating Muddy Waters

Equity Research

22 June 2026

Nordic Banks

Pre 2Q26: Navigating Muddy

Waters

We have preference for Danske given its the only Nordic bank European Banks

where we see a clean beat across core P/L lines without a cost POSITIVE Unchanged

miss vs. cons. We see limited downside for DNB. Within European Banks

Namita Samtani, CFASwedish banks we believe SWEDA could exhibit stronger

revenue trends vs. SHBA and SEBA. We show system data in +44namita.samtani@barclays.com(0)20 3134 2583

this note. Barclays, UK

Raghav Agrawal

+91 (0)22 6175 4711Across the Nordic banks, we expect 2Q26 to be characterised by NII growth QoQ (and we

raghav.agrawal@barclays.com

expect only SHBA to miss on NII) and better fee momentum driven by stronger equity Barclays, UK

markets and deal activity (where we see most banks beating on fees vs. consensus).

However, costs remain the key differentiator, where we see some banks (SEBA, Swedbank,

Nordea) as likely to see cost pressure or miss expectations, limiting the ability to translate

revenue strength into earnings upgrades. Danske stands out as the only bank where we

see a clean beat across core P&L lines (NII and fees) without a cost miss, while DNB offers

supportive fee momentum and cost discipline but we forecast NII only in line with

consensus. Therefore, our preference into 2Q26 is Danske, while we see limited downside

risk for DNB. In contrast, we see more mixed or weaker setups for SEB (cost pressure,

softer non-NII), Swedbank (good near-term revenues but a potential cost miss), Nordea

(well-flagged NII headwinds and limited catalysts) and Handelsbanken (weak volume

trends and NII pressure). Among the Swedish banks, we believe Swedbank could exhibit