Swedbank (1K) | Not Rated | Q2 preview: Revenue strength offsets costs

Research evidence excerpt

Swedbank (1K) | Not Rated | Q2 preview: Revenue strength offsets costs

6.83 29.73 30.97

NCI should strengthen QOQ, driven by higher AUM levels following supportive FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

equity markets, and seasonally higher income from payments and cards, although P/E adj. and fully diluted(x) 13.2 11.7 11.1

payment-related expenses remain elevated. We forecast insurance income to P/BV (x) 1.8 1.8 1.8

P/TBV (x) 2.0 2.0 2.0

normalise after a particularly strong Q1 result. Dividend yield 8.6% 7.4% 7.2%

Cost guidance of SEK 27.5bn + restructuring charges of 1.3bn for 2026 remains RoTBV 15.3% 17.4% 18.1%

unchanged. Q2 costs will be burdened by SEK 800m in restructuring charges, RoE after tax 13.8% 15.6% 16.2% CET 1 ratio 16.8% 16.9% 16.9%

while the remaining SEK 500m will impact H2 2026 gradually. Cost income ratio 43.7% 39.9% 38.2%

Capital remains an unresolved investment debate, following the RWA-add-on for Net NPL ratio (on loans)

Baltic retail exposures in Q1. The pre-close offered no meaningful update on the Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

ongoing IRB review process and corporate exposure. We remain neutral to capital Barclays Banco BPM

effects except for a 20bps benefit from divestments/disposals of an Entercard Raiffeisen Bank International CaixaBank Santander Svenska Handelsbanken

portfolio and PayEx.

Deconstructing the forecasts

We are 2–4% above consensus EPS for 2026–28E and make virtually no forecast

revisions. For the upcoming quarter, we are 3% higher on EPS.

Valuation and investment conclusion

We do not rate Swedbank.

Markus Sandgren

Equity Research Analyst

+468 7 235 183

msandgren@keplercheuvreux.com

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