EvrISI Autos May EU SAAR: Where did 14MM+ come from?

Research evidence excerpt

EvrISI Autos May EU SAAR: Where did 14MM+ come from?

Global Automotive

June 26, 2026

EvrISI Autos May EU SAAR: Where did 14MM+ come from? Chris McNally

+44 207 847 3502

chris.mcnally@evercoreisi.com

John Saager, CFA ■ PM Summary – May’s Western EU SAAR came at 14.4MM,

646-895-1735 +9% YoY (+4% units), with the 3m/YTD trend increasing to

John.Saager@evercoreISI.com 14.3MM/13.9MM, AHEAD of our previous FYE of 13.7MM+ (now

Alex Kulicki updated to 13.8MM+). Investors will continue to ask, when/if/how

646-225-6053 will the (previous) rise in energy/inflation trickle down into EU

alex.kulicki@evercoreisi.com SAAR?? So far, however, the impact remains unseen/contrary

Global Autos Team Contact: given replacement demand and upper income HHs are relatively

EvrISI_Autos@evercoreisi.com unaffected. We maintain our forecast for Q2/26 EU production of

down 1% while EU SAAR growth now appears +4% YoY FY

or better (13.8MM+) which should lead to 1-1.5% of FY ++

revisions in coming months. Like the US, we see a slow EU

SAAR recovery driven by replacement demand (14MM+ over

next 1-2 years) albeit with weaker EU demographics, & upper-

income tailwinds compared to the US.

■ “Made by China” sales reaches ~12% EU penetration – more

than 2x penetration growth YoY (~4.5% Q1 ’25; FY25 ~10%),

with “extreme” penetration rates like UK now reaching 20%.

Reminder, Chinese sales/imports are likely to represent a

perpetual 2% delta/drag between EU SAAR & production.

■ Headline – May’s Western EU SAAR 14.4MM (+1 MoM/ +9%

YoY). 3-month trailing trend of 14.3MM now running well above

our FY estimate of 13.8MM.

■ Regional – Spain, Germany, UK, Italy & ROE YTD units are nicely

up, while France small down (monthlies inside).

⎯ **Note – reminder for first-time readers that there is no official “SAAR”