Great Run But Tough Set Up From Here; Downgrading To Peer Perform...

Research evidence excerpt

Great Run But Tough Set Up From Here; Downgrading To Peer Perform...

Broadlines & Hardlines

Dollar Stores - Market Overweight

FIVE BELOW, INC. (FIVE) June 23, 2026

Great Run But Tough Set Up From Here; Downgrading To Rating:

Peer Perform... Peer Perform

Prior: Outperform

Price:

The Wolfe Byte $192.89

FIVE posted the best 1Q SSS results in our coverage, but with the top-line slowing Price Target:

NAand early signs of the Dumpling trend waning, we are getting more cautious. Prior: $242

Comp estimates for 1H27 are too high, and the story has shifted from better retail View FIVE Model

execution to trend timing. View Comp Table

Company Information

In our September Sector Initiation, FIVE was one of our Top Picks and ended 52-Week Range $121 - $252

up being the second-best performer (+32% vs S&P 500 +13%). Our pitch was Market Cap. (MM) $10,697

Enterprise Value (MM) $11,643

centered around the new leadership team executing with a better focus on Shares Out. (MM) 55.3

merchandising and Retail 101. Meanwhile, the mix was getting richer, and outsized Avg. Value Traded (MM) $203.97

price increases (to offset tariffs) were leading SSS higher. But with the emergence SI% of Float 4.6%

of new Fads (which are driving more excess traffic than expected), we are cautious Price Performance

about decremental margins, and the underlying trend is murkier. We also think YTD LTM

2% 56%the initial boost from improved merchandising and pricing has been realized with FIVE 9% 25% S&P 500

a tougher setup in 2027.

(-) Early Signs That Dumpling Trend Is Slowing; Checks Suggest Waning Demand. 240

Google Trends data suggests that search interest for the dumpling is starting to 220

falter, and our store checks indicate demand is flat. In our recent visits, 60% said the 200180