Umicore 1H Preview - Front-loaded but Fundamentals Intact

Research evidence excerpt

Umicore 1H Preview - Front-loaded but Fundamentals Intact

EUROPE | Chemicals

Umicore EquityJuneResearch22, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEUmicore 1H Preview - Front-loaded but

RATING BUYFundamentals Intact

PRICE €23.52^

We increase FY26 EBITDA by 17% (+5% vs cons) and our PT to €28/sh from

€20. The increase reflects a prior earnings guidance upgrade and improved PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €28.00 (€20.00) | +19%

visibility on earnings quality, albeit with some front-loaded strength. 1H 52W HIGH-LOW €26.96 - €11.62

delivery should give way to a more normalised 2H as metals tailwinds FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 78.5% | 9.99

fade. The investment case remains a solid core business with optionality MARKET CAP €5.7B | $6.5B

around BMS turnaround, with undemanding valuation versus strong long- TICKER UMI BB ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

term critical materials exposure. noted.

Operationally, earnings momentum strong with a moderation underway. 1H benefited from FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

a favourable and volatile metals pricing environment, supporting trading and gold-driven OTC 2026 2027 2026 2027

activity, alongside outsized profitability in cobalt-linked Specialty Materials. With a likely more REV +5% +8% +1% +7%

stable pricing backdrop into 2H, and jewellery demand and precious metals dynamics unlikely

EPS +29% +35% +16% +28%

to sustain recent highs, we see earnings as more H1 weighed (JEFe 56%/44% for 1H/2H26

EBITDA). Specialty Materials should normalise rather than fall away given ongoing pricing

2026 (€) 1Half 2Half FY

power and still-supportive cobalt levels (JEFe +19% EBITDA vs cons across the next three

EPS -- -- 1.94

years). More broadly, Umicore’s exposure to critical minerals continues to underpin the longer-

PREV 1.50