Umicore (1K) | Hold (Buy) | Betting on Catalysts and Battery Materials

Research evidence excerpt

Umicore (1K) | Hold (Buy) | Betting on Catalysts and Battery Materials

Umicore Hold | Target Price: EUR24.00

Growing catalyst value

Exposure and relevance of the catalyst business

Umicore’s Catalysis segment generated sales of EUR1,665m in 2025, accounting for 47% of group

revenue. Adj. EBITDA of EUR450m represented 53% of group sales. The group is concentrating on

mobile emission catalysts and associated cleaning systems, with a particular emphasis on light-

duty gasoline engines, which account for an estimated 68% of Umicore’s catalyst offering.

Hence, as consumer demand has shifted towards gasoline (and hybrid) powered cars, Umicore is

well positioned to benefit, particularly since diesel engines have lost significant market share on

the light-duty side. Umicore considers itself to be the market leader in the gasoline engine exhaust

treatment market, ahead of peers BASF and Johnson Matthey.

The Catalysis segment also comprises several small growth/optionality activities: Fuel Cell &

Stationary Catalysts and Precious Metals Chemistry. Fuel Cell & Stationary Catalysts targets PEM

fuel-cell and stationary catalyst applications across the automotive, hydrogen production,

marine, and industrial markets, while Precious Metals Chemistry focuses on homogeneous

catalysis and organometallic chemistry for automotive, fine-chemical and pharmaceutical uses.

Near-term prospects, mid-term targets, and triggers for the stock

During the 30 April trading update, Umicore’s management suggested that FY 2026 EBITDA could

“approach EUR1bn”, which was well above market expectations at the time. The market is now

focusing on management’s ability to deliver on this promise, assuming there is no further

deterioration in the geopolitical environment.