Umicore: Strength through scarcity. Buy.

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Umicore: Strength through scarcity. Buy.

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Umicore

Strength through scarcity. Buy.

Reinstating Coverage: BUY | PO: 30.00 EUR | Price: 24.08 EUR

Core strength today, scarcity option tomorrow. Buy. 18 May 2026

We reinstate coverage of Umicore with a Buy rating and set a €30/sh PO Equity

(US$8.70/ADR). (1) We see group EBITDA approx. 10% above consensus in ‘27/28E

mostly from the Recycling business. (2) Specialty Materials offers under-priced scarcity John Campbell >> Research Analyst

value amid rising Western angst over supply chains and the drawing up of national MLI (UK)

critical material stockpile plans. (3) Share gains in gasoline plus cost control extend the +44jcampbell24@bofa.com20 7995 0643

relative duration of Catalysis profit. (4) Valuation at c10x EV/EBIT is c25% below Matthew Yates >>

average and already reflects under-delivery in Batteries, which we value at zero in our Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

SOTP. Our Buy case does not require investors to believe ‘28E Batteries EBITDA +44 20 7996 4537

guidance, which we and consensus haircut >50% in absence of clarity. matthew.yates@bofa.com

Jason Fairclough >>

Recycling is the main driver of our earnings upside to cons ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

We think consensus, which fades EBITDA, is too low on Recycling. Current prices for key +44 20 7995 0225

jason.fairclough@bofa.com

metals Rhodium, Platinum, Gold are now roughly double vs. the time period we estimate

Julia Winckelmann >>

major hedging was set. Therefore, with hedge coverage set to fall from c70% in 2026 to Research Analyst

c50%, our bottom-up approach forecasts EBITDA growth: €445/460/490mn ‘26/27/28E, MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 2685

placing us +5/11/14% above segment consensus (Exhibit 7). Our view is supported by julia.winckelmann@bofa.com